Top 5 IT Trends for 2007

It’s only November but I’m preoccupied with what’s coming up next in the new year. Here’s what I think.

1. IT budgets stagnate.

SearchCIO is reporting a slow-down in IT budget growth in 2007 with increases in the range of 4-6 percent, barely above inflation. The same report indicates that hardware expenditures will fall as 2004-2005 infrastructure improvement projects will come to a close, and with that, dollars for integrators and consultants. That means we consultants are going to have to fight for consumer retention – I foresee a strong focus on quality, value, and consumer relationship in 2007 with a smaller emphasis on marketing to acquire new business.

2. Outsourcing/Crowd-sourcing IT jobs will continue.

In an effort to contain costs, interest in securing talent for spot-contracts and containing risk through outsourced agents is going to continue. However, with IT budget stagnation, contractors and consultants aren’t likely to see a significant up-tick in their business volume and the market will be intensely price competitive. This may give some who’re employed full-time pause about their options in a stagnant, going nowhere, maintenance IT organization. What are they learning and what value does their full-time gig do for their resume? We may see some antsy-pants in the second and third quarters as technology professionals build up confidence to ride solo for better project opportunities.

3. Small and mid-range businesses will revamp websites.

Web presence and search is becoming more localized and I think small businesses will retool their websites to bring more local eyeballs. Small businesses will want to make incremental improvements to their site instead of wild, sweeping changes, perhaps adding more widget functionality, or retooling their online advertising strategy due to changes driven by click fraud (see below). I also think more SEO emphasis is going to be needed to provide visibility over a mass of competitors who’re doing the same kind of revamping. It may be a good year for the web developer.

4. Vista deployment will crawl Q1-Q2; Office 2007 and Vista licenses will be a disappointment for Microsoft shareholders.

Again, with budget forecast numbers in the can, combined with a healthy dose of skepticism associated with large-scale Microsoft releases, we can presume that many organizations will hold off on Windows and Office upgrades until Q3-Q4, maybe even until 2008. Microsoft is really hyping these releases in their partner channel and have loaded on the incentives, but I just don’t think business consumer demand is going to be where Ballmer needs it to replicate previous successes with such significant releases. If anything, I believe the new look and feel – the aesthetic presentation of Office in particular – will actually disappoint and push away consumers more than what Microsoft would hope to believe.

5. Online search will be materially penalized for click fraud; consumer confidence on online advertising will drop; class-action lawsuits filed against search engines will prompt a revolution in online advertising.

The name of the online advertising game is changing, folks. Confidence in this area has been shaken by customers questioning not only the method of how relevance is determined, but, on how much legitimate traffic is actually coming from their online advertising dollar. In 2007, there will be a drive for greater ad transparency and accountability; Google’s iMedia million-dollar settlement is just the tip of the iceberg. I’ve no doubt Google will innovate itself out of this mess and regain control over its advertising programs, but the transition will likely rock the industry, shrink ad revenues, and prompt significant revamping of affiliate advertising strategy for small and mid-range businesses on the web.

Yeah, I’ve probably missed a few things on this – corporate security will remain big strategic objectives for small business albeit that’s nothing new for the industry. Where we could usually feel enthusiastic by large upcoming releases by Microsoft, we’re probably not going to feel the same euphoria brought on by earlier releases of Windows and Office, and that’s too bad: looks like 2007 is going to be a defensive year to hold the ground you’ve already got. Pray for no earthquakes.

R

Russell Mickler works a technology consultant in Battle Ground, WA. With over thirteen years of experience, Mickler holds a CISSP, MCSE, and a Masters Degree in Information Technology, and teaches graduate and undergraduate technology curriculum. His website can be found at http://www.micklerandassociates.com and he can be contacted at mickler@micklerandassociates.com.

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