-
Russell Mickler, Principal Consultant, has over 17 years of professional experience leading and managing IT organizations.
Structural Unemployment
Written on July 8, 2010
Leave a Comment
|
I thought this article from msnbc.com was very eloquent in explaining the long-term systemic unemployment problems in our economy. Specifically, these numbers:
“…On top of the 8.3 million workers who were laid off since the recession began, another 3 million or so jobs, or about 100,000 a month, were needed to keep up with the growth of the work force. So even if the economy now begins producing an average of 250,000 net new jobs every month, year in, year out, employment wouldn’t be back to pre-recession levels until at least 2016.”
By the way, the economy added just 13,000 private sector jobs in June.
Critically, what numbers like these are telling us is that the economy is undergoing a long-term period of slow economic growth and static if not rising unemployment, putting downward-pressure on consumer incomes (read: consumer spending) and business revenue.
Meanwhile, if you’re to believe as I do that corporate America will continue to disintermediate, telecommute, and increase productivity through diminishing the role of labor in their business processes, then we’re facing even more rounds of layoffs through transformative business practices in the years ahead. The article goes on to read:
“Unfortunately it’s going to last a long time,” Mohamed El-Erian, co-CEO of the investment firm Pimco told CNBC. ”It’s not just about the level. It’s about the structural dimensions of the unemployment.” That means many of the jobs that were lost the recession may never come back, says El-Erian.
These observations are just a continuation of my beliefs culminated in my Maverick Manifesto that I wrote about last year. I I believe it’s vital for small to mid-range employers to look at ways to remain competitive through the use of technological restructuring; if you aren’t, then your competitor is, putting your business at a competitive disadvantage. Meanwhile, employees and graduating students need to think more entrepreneurial, and consider a workplace driven by their own freelance initiative, tenacity, drive, and self-promotion/branding.
My message on this is simple: early-adopters will experience a stronger return and an easier transition into these structural changes to the economy. That is preferable and strategic – positioning the firm or the individual into a greater position of self-sufficiency – as compared to those who’d be laggards or late-adopters in their response: who’re resisting change, waiting for a job, or waiting for things to “get back to normal”. I’d like to convince you now: this is the new normal. Accept it. Get used to it. Learn to thrive within it.
Whether or not your a company or a working person, re-thinking the nature of work and of employment is of vital importance to you. These are macroeconomic conditions you should be thinking about, considering, and responding to right now. What’s important is to look at these problems realistically – not pessimistically – and consider options towards shaping your future rather than becoming a victim of macroeconomic forces.
R